Global Lithography Hegemony: A Market Defined by Monopoly and Technological Bottlenecks

To accurately assess China’s current situation and future prospects in lithography technology, one must first understand the global industry landscape it operates in. This is a highly monopolistic market built by a handful of giants through technology, capital, and a complex supply chain network, creating nearly insurmountable barriers for any latecomer. China’s efforts toward self-sufficiency are a high-stakes strategic game played against this backdrop.

Market Structure: A High-Risk Three-Player Game

The global lithography machine market is dominated by three companies: ASML of the Netherlands, and Nikon and Canon of Japan. In terms of sales revenue, the market is extremely concentrated. In 2022, ASML held a staggering 82% market share, while Canon and Nikon accounted for 10% and 8%, respectively . This oligopoly highlights the industry’s high barriers to entry. As the most valuable and critical component of semiconductor equipment, lithography machines had a market size of approximately $23.23 billion in 2022, representing 23% of the entire semiconductor equipment market . Market forecasts indicate this growth trend will continue, with the global lithography market expected to reach about $31 billion by 2026 .

However, behind these simple market share figures lies a more complex competitive reality. The market is not uniform but stratified. ASML captures the majority of profits with its absolute dominance in high-end equipment, while Nikon and Canon primarily compete in the more technologically mature low- to mid-end market. In terms of shipment volume, the more mature KrF and i-line lithography machines accounted for 209 and 185 units respectively in 2022, dominating in quantity . This indicates that for mature processes (28nm and above), Chinese companies face a market that, while competitive, still has room for penetration. For advanced processes (below 28nm), they must confront the unshakeable technological fortress of ASML. This divided market structure profoundly shapes and dictates the dual-track strategy China’s lithography industry must adopt: on one hand, achieve commercial competitiveness in the mature process market to build scale, accumulate capital, and nurture a supply chain; on the other hand, leverage state power to support a “moonshot project” for the long-term development of high-end DUV and future technologies to secure the nation’s technological sovereignty.

The Pinnacle of EUV: ASML’s Absolute Monopoly

At the apex of the lithography technology pyramid is Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. EUV machines are indispensable tools for manufacturing chips at 7nm and below, and ASML is the only company in the world capable of designing and manufacturing them . This gives ASML absolute control over the frontier of global semiconductor technology, making it a key player in the continuation of Moore’s Law.

The complexity and exorbitant cost of EUV machines (a single unit costs over €100 million) are direct reflections of their monopolistic status . This achievement is not the result of a single company’s efforts but the culmination of decades of collaborative R&D by ASML, integrating the world’s top suppliers. For example, its core optical system is exclusively supplied by Zeiss of Germany, while the light source system comes from its subsidiary, the former American company Cymer. This deeply integrated global cooperation network itself forms a moat that is difficult for newcomers to replicate.

Technological Barriers: The Challenge of Grand Integration

Lithography machines are hailed as the “crown jewel of modern industry,” and their extreme complexity is embodied in several core subsystems, each representing the limits of current human engineering.

• Optical System: This is the “eye” of the lithography machine, and its precision determines the limits of chip manufacturing. Germany’s Zeiss exclusively supplies EUV optical components to ASML, with its lenses requiring a surface precision (PV value) of less than 0.25 nanometers . This is an atomic-level precision requirement and represents one of the most formidable challenges facing China’s optics industry.

• Light Source System: Generating a stable, high-power EUV light source is another daunting task that took the industry decades to solve. The stability and power of the light source directly impact the efficiency and yield of lithography.

• Dual Wafer Stage: This is a revolutionary innovation by ASML. By performing measurements and alignment on the next wafer while one wafer is being exposed, it dramatically increases production efficiency (throughput). The system requires a positioning accuracy of just 2 nanometers during high-speed motion . This technology is key to ASML’s ability to outperform its competitors in terms of productivity and cost-effectiveness.

Any one of these subsystems represents a massive technological gap, and the ultimate success of a lithography machine requires the perfect integration of all these cutting-edge technologies. This is not just a technical challenge but a ultimate test of a nation’s overall industrial base, materials science, precision manufacturing, and systems engineering capabilities.

China’s Path to Self-Sufficiency: Policy, Geopolitics, and National Strategy

China’s relentless pursuit of lithography self-sufficiency is not driven solely by market or technology, but is a strategic imperative for its economic sovereignty and technological lifeline, shaped by profound geopolitical shifts and national security considerations. External blockades and internal resolve are the two main pillars of this grand narrative.

The Catalyst: Geopolitical Sanctions and Export Controls

In recent years, a coalition of countries led by the United States has progressively tightened export controls on semiconductor technology to China. A core objective of these measures is to restrict China’s access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, particularly the EUV and high-end Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines produced by ASML . The U.S. successfully persuaded its key allies—the Netherlands, home to ASML, and Japan, home to Nikon, Canon, and critical material suppliers like photoresist—to join the control regime, effectively cutting off China’s access to the most advanced lithography technology from the international market .

Despite these strict restrictions, the importance of the mainland Chinese market to the global supply chain cannot be ignored. In 2022, sales to mainland China still accounted for 14%-15% of ASML’s total sales . ASML expects to sell approximately 100 DUV lithography machines to China in 2023 . This reflects the complex and resilient economic interdependence within the globalized industry chain. However, this very dependence is the fundamental reason China seeks technological independence.

The National Response: An All-Out “Whole-Nation System”

Facing external technological blockades, China has launched systematic, state-led industrial policies, forming a “whole-nation system” response model.

• “02 Special Project”: Officially named the “Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) Manufacturing Equipment and Process Technology” National Science and Technology Major Project, it began during the 12th Five-Year Plan. The project focused on developing key manufacturing equipment for 45-22nm nodes, laying the foundation for the early R&D of domestic core enterprises like Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE) .

• National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (“The Big Fund”): This is a massive state-level investment fund designed to guide social capital through market-oriented operations, concentrating investment in strategic and weak links of the semiconductor industry chain. The successive launches of Phase I and Phase II of the fund have injected enormous capital into the industry. Recently, the third phase of the fund was officially established with a registered capital of over 300 billion RMB, signaling an unprecedented level of state support and determination for semiconductor self-sufficiency.¹

• Fiscal and Tax Incentives: The state has introduced a series of highly attractive tax incentive policies. For example, integrated circuit production enterprises with a line width of less than 28nm (inclusive) and an operating period of more than 15 years are granted a corporate income tax exemption for up to ten years.² These policies are designed to significantly reduce the financial pressure on domestic enterprises in their early stages of R&D and production, encouraging long-term investment.³

The combined force of these external pressures and internal policies has produced a profound and somewhat unexpected structural change. In an open market without sanctions, any rational wafer fab (like SMIC) would prioritize the stable and efficient equipment from ASML over domestic equipment that is still maturing and carries risks. However, export controls have completely altered this logic. For advanced processes, domestic equipment has shifted from being a “backup option” to the “only option.” This has created a protected and guaranteed domestic market for local equipment manufacturers, forcing fabs to cooperate deeply with suppliers like SMEE to jointly verify and iterate on technology. The valuable production data and feedback loops generated from this close collaboration are nearly impossible to obtain in open competition and have greatly accelerated the maturation of domestic equipment. Therefore, external sanctions have objectively provided a fertile ground for the rise of China’s local supply chain, transforming the investment logic for the domestic lithography industry from a pure technological gamble to a bet on the certainty of national strategic will.

Deconstructing China’s Lithography Machine: A Technical Status Assessment

Against this grand strategic backdrop, an assessment of China’s lithography technology must return to concrete engineering realities. Currently, China’s lithography efforts are led by the core integrator, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), which drives the collaborative development of key subsystems. While significant progress has been made, a tangible gap with the world’s top level remains.

Core Integrator: Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE)

Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (Group) Co., Ltd. (SMEE) is the “national team” and absolute core of China’s lithography machine R&D, shouldering the responsibility of system integration and complete machine development .

• Current Mass Production Capability: SMEE’s most mature and commercially mass-produced product is its 600 series lithography machine. This is a step-and-scan system using an ArF light source, capable of meeting the mass production needs for 90nm process node chips . This marks a breakthrough for China in the DUV lithography field, moving from zero to one, but it is still several generations behind mainstream international technology.

• Next-Generation Breakthrough (28nm): The market’s most watched development is SMEE’s SSA800 series immersion ArF (ArFi) lithography machine, which targets a 28nm process resolution. Although there were reports in 2019 that SMEE had developed a 28nm machine ⁴, more cautious industry analysis from 2023 suggests the equipment is still in a stage where a “breakthrough is expected” . This indicates that there is still a difficult road ahead from a successful prototype to achieving the stability, reliability, and throughput required for large-scale mass production. The success or failure of this 28nm immersion lithography machine is the most critical near-term milestone for the entire Chinese semiconductor self-sufficiency process.

Key Subsystems: Progress and Gaps

The performance of a lithography machine is determined by the capabilities of its three core subsystems. China has made efforts in all these areas, but the technological gaps are also most apparent here.

• Optical System (The “Eyes”):

  • Domestic Representative: A-share listed company Molex Optics is a key supplier of optical components for SMEE’s lithography machine illumination and exposure objective lens systems.⁵

  • Technology Gap: The gap with the global benchmark, Zeiss of Germany, is enormous. Taking surface precision (PV value), the best indicator of processing accuracy, as an example, the optical components Zeiss provides for ASML’s EUV lithography machines have a precision of less than 0.25 nanometers. In contrast, the public specification for Molex Optics’ i-line lithography-related products is less than 30 nanometers . This gap of over 100 times reflects a systemic lag in ultra-precision optical processing, inspection, coating, and underlying material science—the biggest shortfall that will require long-term efforts to catch up.

• Light Source System (The “Light”):

  • Domestic Representative: The unlisted KY-SEMI is the main force in domestic DUV laser source R&D.⁶ The listed company
    Focuslight Technologies specializes in core optical components within the light source system, such as light field homogenizers. Focuslight not only supplies top international optical companies but also collaborates extensively with domestic R&D units.⁷

  • Technology Gap: Despite breakthroughs in some components, developing a high-power, high-stability, long-lifetime ArF excimer laser source that meets the demands of high-volume manufacturing remains a huge engineering challenge.

• Dual Wafer Stage (The “Hands”):

  • Domestic Representative: The dual wafer stage, co-developed by Tsinghua University and H-JING (preparing for IPO), has achieved a key breakthrough .

  • Technology Gap: The domestic dual wafer stage has achieved a positioning accuracy of 10 nanometers, filling a domestic void, which is a remarkable achievement. However, this is still behind ASML’s industry-leading standard of 2 nanometers . This 8-nanometer difference will directly affect the overlay accuracy in chip manufacturing, thereby limiting the effectiveness of using multi-patterning techniques at more advanced nodes.

Strategic Shift: DUV Multi-Patterning Technology

Due to the inability to acquire EUV lithography machines, China’s strategic path to advanced processes (such as 7nm) must rely on using existing DUV immersion lithography machines combined with multi-patterning techniques, such as Self-Aligned Double Patterning (SADP) or Self-Aligned Quadruple Patterning (SAQP) .

This technological route was widely used by the industry before EUV matured, proving its feasibility. However, it also brings significant drawbacks: the manufacturing process becomes dramatically more complex, with a substantial increase in the number of lithography, etching, and deposition steps. This leads to higher production costs, longer cycle times, and poses a severe challenge to the final product yield .

This is precisely why SMEE’s 28nm immersion lithography machine holds strategic significance beyond its own node capability. Its success does not just mean China can independently produce 28nm chips. More importantly, it will provide the Chinese semiconductor industry with a foundational platform to implement a DUV multi-patterning strategy. Without this high-precision immersion lithography machine, all paths to 14nm or even 7nm domestic production would be castles in the air. Therefore, this machine is the “key” for China to advance to smaller nodes and the “bottleneck” that unlocks the potential of the entire domestic ecosystem. Its success or failure will directly determine when the real market demand for domestic etching equipment from companies like Naura Technology and AMEC, as well as for high-end photoresist materials, will be unlocked.

Mapping the Domestic Ecosystem: Investment Opportunities Across the Value Chain

As the national strategy continues to advance, a domestic industrial ecosystem centered around the localization of lithography machines is rapidly taking shape. For investors, understanding the structure of this ecosystem and identifying the key players in each segment is a prerequisite for seizing this historic opportunity.

Value Chain Analysis

The lithography machine industry chain is extremely long, involving numerous high-tech fields. The following table organizes the core A-share listed companies directly or indirectly related to the lithography industry chain, categorized by their position in the value chain. This provides investors with a clear “investment map.”

Table 1: Map of Core Listed Companies in China’s Lithography Ecosystem

Segment	Company Name	Stock Code	Key Role/Product in Value Chain	Relationship with SMEE & Remarks
I. Core Subsystems
Optical System	Molex Optics	688502.SH	Supplies optical components for lithography machine illumination and exposure objective lens systems.	Direct supplier to SMEE.⁵ A core beneficiary.
	AUPT	002338.SZ	Parent company, CIOMP, is a national powerhouse in optical R&D. The company produces optical components like grating sensors.	Deeply involved in the “national team’s” R&D through CIOMP, indirectly related.
	N-Vision	603297.SH	Produces optical modules and lenses used in lithography inspection systems and other fields.	Considered one of the lithography concept stocks.⁹
Light Source System	Focuslight Tech	688167.SH	Produces light field homogenizers, a key optical component in DUV light source systems.	Supplies global giants and collaborates with domestic R&D units.⁸ A key component supplier.
	FOCtek	002222.SZ	Produces upstream materials like nonlinear optical crystals and laser crystals.	Previously supplied a small number of optical components to ASML through a European agent . Indirectly related.
Ancillary Systems	MayAir Technology	688376.SH	Provides ultra-high cleanliness level (ISO Class 1) environmental solutions (EFU, ULPA filters) for inside the lithography machine.	Direct supplier to SMEE.⁵
II. Peripheral Equipment & Materials
Coater/Developer	Kingsemi	688037.SH	Leading domestic manufacturer of coater/developer equipment, which works in tandem with lithography machines.	Essential equipment in the lithography process flow, a core upstream company.¹¹
Photoresist & Materials	Nata Opto-electronic	300346.SZ	Dedicated to the R&D of ArF photoresist, a key material for DUV lithography processes.	Core upstream company ¹¹, its breakthrough is crucial for the self-sufficiency of the entire industry chain.
	Rongda Photosensitive	300576.SZ	Domestic leader in PCB photoresist, expanding into the IC photoresist field.	Core upstream company.¹¹
	Jingrui	300655.SZ	Produces photoresist and purchases lithography machines for its own R&D.	Core upstream company.¹¹
Specialty Gases	KMT	002549.SZ	Produces electronic specialty gases used in lithography and other semiconductor process steps.	A concept stock with high market attention.¹³
Investment/Holding	Zhangjiang Hi-Tech	600895.SH	Developer of Shanghai’s Zhangjiang High-Tech Park, indirectly holds shares in SMEE.	A proxy for investing in SMEE and Shanghai’s semiconductor ecosystem.¹¹

In-depth Analysis of Key Companies and Investment Logic

Beneath the macro-level industry map, a deep dive into core companies is crucial for making prudent investment decisions. This section will analyze several of the most representative companies, combining their business models with financial data.

Table 2: Financial Snapshot of Core Lithography Concept Stocks (Based on 2022/2023 and latest data)

Company Name	Stock Code	Revenue (RMB)	Revenue Growth (YoY)	Net Profit (RMB)	P/E Ratio	Semiconductor Business Revenue Share
Molex Optics	688502.SH	458M (2023)	-	51M (2023)	High	37.05% (This segment grew by +57.7%)
Focuslight Tech	688167.SH	619M (2024)	+10.32%	-170M (2024)	Loss	Diversified, with light source components as core
MayAir Technology	688376.SH	1.227B (2022 est.)	-	-	High	Approx. 55% ¹⁶
FOCtek	002222.SZ	768M (2022)	+11.57%	226M (2022)	~58x	Not explicitly disclosed, expected to be low
AUPT	002338.SZ	-	-	-	High	Not explicitly disclosed, one of several business lines

Molex Optics (688502.SH) - The Core Optics Play

• Business Profile: As a direct and confirmed supplier of optical components for SMEE’s lithography illumination and exposure systems ⁵, Molex Optics is the A-share listed company with the highest correlation to the development of China’s core lithography optical systems.

• Financial Analysis: The semiconductor business is the company’s fastest-growing engine. In 2023, revenue from this segment grew by 57.7% year-over-year to 170 million RMB, increasing its share of total revenue to 37.05% . This clearly indicates that the company has already secured tangible orders and achieved high growth from the wave of domestic substitution.

• Investment Logic:

  • Strengths: The direct supplier relationship with SMEE provides a high degree of certainty; the rapid growth of its semiconductor business segment validates its market position; it is a clear beneficiary of the national strategy to promote self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment.

  • Weaknesses: A significant technological gap with global giant Zeiss still exists ; the company’s revenue streams also include life sciences and AR/VR, and fluctuations in these areas could affect overall performance .

  • Opportunities: Once SMEE’s 28nm lithography machine achieves successful commercial mass production, it is highly likely to bring an exponential increase in orders for Molex Optics, solidifying its position as a strategic national supplier.

Focuslight Technologies (688167.SH) - The Key Light Source Enabler

• Business Profile: The company specializes in high-power semiconductor laser components and laser optics. Its core product for the lithography industry is the light field homogenizer, a key optical element used in DUV light source systems. Focuslight not only has a track record of supplying top global customers but is also deeply involved in domestic R&D projects.⁷ The company originated from the renowned Xi’an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, giving it a strong research background.¹⁷

• Financial Analysis: The company is currently in a critical period of strategic investment and business transformation. Recent overseas acquisitions have led to short-term financial losses (a net loss of 170 million RMB in 2024 and a loss of 32 million RMB in Q1 2025) , but this is a necessary investment to acquire cutting-edge technology and expand markets. The company’s light field homogenizer business for lithography applications has grown rapidly, with revenue increasing by nearly 90% in the first three quarters of 2022.⁸ As the effects of M&A integration become apparent, the company achieved a single-quarter profit in Q2 2025, suggesting a potential turning point in its performance .

• Investment Logic:

  • Strengths: Possesses difficult-to-replicate core technology in the laser optics field; has experience serving top international clients, validating its technical capabilities; strategic acquisitions are positioning the company for future growth in high-potential sectors like optical communications and consumer electronics.

  • Weaknesses: High R&D investment and M&A integration costs have resulted in current losses; the traditional industrial laser business faces market competition pressure.¹⁸

  • Opportunities: As domestic lithography machines advance towards higher performance, the demand for high-quality, high-reliability domestic light source core components will be inelastic. Focuslight is in the best position to meet this demand.

MayAir Technology (688376.SH) - The Indispensable Unsung Hero

• Business Profile: The company is a leading domestic player in the field of cleanrooms and related equipment. As a direct supplier to SMEE, MayAir Technology provides micro-environment solutions (EFU and ULPA filters) that meet the highest ISO Class 1 cleanliness standards for the interior of lithography machines.⁵

• Financial Analysis: The company’s business is highly focused on the semiconductor/electronics industry, with this sector accounting for about 55% of its total revenue ¹⁶, making it a relatively “pure-play” stock for semiconductor infrastructure and equipment.

• Investment Logic:

  • Strengths: Direct supplier relationship with SMEE; holds a leading position in a key market segment; its business benefits not only from the manufacturing of lithography machines themselves but also from the broader wave of semiconductor fab construction.

  • Weaknesses: The company’s performance is closely tied to the capital expenditure cycle of the semiconductor industry.

  • Opportunities: Against the backdrop of China accelerating the construction of both mature and advanced process fabs, the demand for high-end cleanroom solutions will continue to grow strongly. Its role as a supplier to SMEE provides an additional growth driver with higher technological barriers.

AUPT (002338.SZ) & FOCtek (002222.SZ) - Broad-Based Optics Plays

• Business Profile: These two companies are part of the broader optical components ecosystem. AUPT’s parent company, the Changchun Institute of Optics, Fine Mechanics and Physics (CIOMP), is a “national team” in China’s optical R&D.²⁰ FOCtek is a globally leading manufacturer of crystals and optical components and has indirectly supplied products to ASML in the past .

• Financial Analysis: Both companies have highly diversified revenue sources, and the direct contribution from domestic lithography projects is currently small or not separately disclosed .

• Investment Logic: Compared to Molex Optics, these companies are less direct investment targets for the domestic lithography theme, with lower risk exposure. Investing in them is more akin to a long-term bet on the localization trend of China’s entire high-end optics industry.

Synthesis and Strategic Outlook: Risks, Catalysts, and the Long-Term Path

Summary of Key Findings

• China’s lithography self-sufficiency is a long-term national strategy driven by geopolitics.

• Significant progress has been made, with 90nm technology in mass production and a 28nm immersion lithography machine on the verge of a breakthrough.

• However, a generational gap with global leader ASML remains in core technologies like optical systems and light sources.

• The nation’s advanced process strategy heavily relies on DUV multi-patterning, for which SMEE’s 28nm ArFi lithography machine is an indispensable platform.

• A vibrant ecosystem of local suppliers is emerging, offering diversified investment channels for investors.

Key Future Catalysts

• Primary Catalyst: A formal announcement from SMEE that its 28nm ArFi lithography machine has successfully completed verification at a mainstream domestic fab (such as SMIC) and has entered commercial production. This would be the ultimate validation of domestic technological capability and could trigger a re-evaluation of the entire industry chain.

• Secondary Catalysts: SMEE releasing more orders to domestic suppliers; a clear investment from “The Big Fund III” into companies in the lithography industry chain; a breakthrough in the R&D or commercial application of domestic ArF photoresist.

Major Risks

• Technical Execution Risk: R&D progress may be slower than expected. The 28nm lithography machine might face persistent challenges with stability, throughput, or yield after entering a real production environment.

• Geopolitical Risk: Export controls from the U.S. and its allies could be further tightened, restricting access to more basic components, raw materials, or design software, thereby creating new technological bottlenecks.

• Valuation Risk: The stock prices of many “concept stocks” have already been driven to high levels by market expectations, with their valuations reflecting future potential rather than current profitability.¹² Any sign of progress falling short of expectations could trigger a sharp price correction.

• Market Risk: The semiconductor industry is cyclical. A global industry downturn could slow capital expenditure, which might have an impact even in China’s policy-driven market.

Final Outlook: The 3-5 Year Trajectory

In summary, while completely catching up to the cutting edge of EUV technology is unrealistic in the next 3-5 years, China is on a clear and irreversible path toward achieving technological self-sufficiency for mature process nodes (28nm and above).

The successful deployment of the 28nm immersion lithography machine within the next 1-2 years is a high-probability event. This will enable domestic fabs to independently produce the vast majority of chip types and, through multi-patterning, attempt to reach 14/7nm level processes for specific strategic applications (such as some computing chips).

For investors, the market is likely to bifurcate.⁴ Companies with verifiable technical strength, real orders, and a clear role in the 28nm lithography supply chain (such as Molex Optics and MayAir Technology) are likely to outperform those that are merely “concept” stocks with no substantive progress. The key for investors is to closely track substantive progress in core technologies and focus on the most direct and critical technology enablers.

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